Mutual Fund Buzz: Common Investor Mistakes

Investors seem to be slowly moving back into the stock market

November 8, 2010 RSS Feed Print
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It's always good to take a step back and assess any mistakes you may be making in your portfolio. In a recent story, fund guru and Marketwatch columnist Chuck Jaffe outlines seven of the most common mistakes that fund investors make. His list includes performance-chasing, letting emotions take over, and not knowing when to dump a fund. Also, Jaffe writes, "More than 90 percent of all new money into mutual funds go to issues that carry Morningstar's four- and five-star rating." It's important to look at different types of rankings, Jaffe says, but some rankings only take into account how funds have performed in the past, which doesn't necessarily mean they will perform well in the future.

[See U.S. News's 9 Strategies for This (Or Any) Market.]

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, the American Association of Individual Investors finds 48 percent of investors surveyed are bullish on stocks, as of last week—the highest level since February 2007. There are concerns that investors are once again late to a rally, and that they might just be jumping back into stocks because they have performed so well recently. (Since August, the S&P 500 has gained 17 percent.) Since early September, retail investors have poured about $2 billion into U.S. stock funds, according to the Journal.

[See U.S. News's The 100 Best Mutual Funds for the Long Term.]

Now that the elections are over, many investors are worried how a divided Congress will affect their portfolios. Morningstar's director of personal finance, Christine Benz, cautions investors that gridlock on Capitol Hill may not be good for markets. More importantly, she says, predicting exactly how the new Congress will legislate can be extremely difficult. "Attempting to gauge the broad market's performance in a post-midterm world is challenging enough. An even more difficult game is attempting to figure out which stocks and sectors stand to benefit from specific legislation coming out of Congress in the months and years ahead," she writes. Benz says investors should think twice before repositioning their portfolios solely based on what they believe will happen in Congress over the coming months.

[See U.S. News's Why the Dow Usually Rallies After Midterm Elections.]

 

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funds,
money market funds,
investing,
mutual funds

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Chasing return performance is clearly a losing strategy, It provides the opportunity to buy high and sell low. Virtually all of the mutual fund recommendations published in the press analyze historical returns. The better recommendations speak to longer time horizons for the analysis and add factors like fund manager tenure.

Mutual funds do exist that exhibit mutual fund persistence, beating the S&P 500 in terms of both risk and return. Many actively managed mutual funds have accomplished this. How to identify them?

There is a very good conceptual rationale for positing that past performance can identify funds likely to outperform in the future. Actively managed mutual funds are decision-making machines. Their decision-making capability is the bottom line result of people, processes, approaches, and tools that they use every day to make decisions. Good machines are more likely to make good decisions than bad machines. This capability to make consistently good decisions can be inferred from past risk, return and persistence behavior. Persistence is the tendency of a fund to exceed S&P500 return at lower than S&P500 risk. A tool that provides this analysis is available at www.FundReveal.com and a free trial is available.

Tony DuBon of MA 4:11PM November 08, 2010

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