To Stay Safe, Sell Stocks?

Professor Zvi Bodie says retirees should go into conservative overdrive

July 13, 2009 RSS Feed Print
  • Comment (9)

Is it true that you didn't lose a penny in the market downturn?

I have 100 percent of my retirement money invested in treasury inflation-protected securities. That is not to say I don't hold risky assets. I do have risky assets, but I don't hold them in my retirement portfolio. I segregate my assets into ones I know I can count on to maintain my standard of living in retirement and other assets in which I am willing to take some risks. My target retirement age is 75. Truthfully, I doubt I will retire at 75 if I am still physically and mentally fit. I enjoy what I do at work.

Many workers with 401(k)'s are automatically enrolled in target-date funds. Are these a good investment?

In my opinion, the vast majority of them are completely misnamed. Suppose I am planning to retire in 2010. There is the expectation on the part of most people who don't know much about investing that at that target date they will have enough money to retire. The investment industry persuaded ordinary people that all they had to do was sit back while stocks delivered them a comfortable retirement. Nothing of the sort is true. The only thing that target-date funds do is they automatically lower the percent of retirement assets in the stock market and increase the portion that is in the bond market. Most of them still have you invested with half of your money in the stock market at your retirement date. The typical 2010 retirement fund lost 30 percent of its value. There is a very low likelihood that those [2010] funds are going to make up that 30 percent loss.

[See Misperceptions About Target-Date Funds.]

Can someone who makes $40,000 or $50,000 a year get to a secure retirement without taking any risks?

The point is to be setting aside enough income during your working years so you can maintain your standard of living after you are too old to work. Someone who is making $40,000 or $50,000, unless they have a very modest lifestyle, probably is not going to be able to retire until they can't work anymore. That's the reality. Anyone who is trying to convince those people that they can retire at age 65 and live comfortably is selling them a dream. If they really hate their job, then they'd better prepare to make some sacrifices in terms of their standard of living.

So how should workers allocate their retirement money?

I advocate an investment pyramid. At the base, you've got your Social Security income and whatever you can continue to earn from employment. Social Security is probably the best investment you can find at later age. For every year you delay claiming benefits, the starting benefit increases by 8 percent. Try to postpone taking it until you reach age 70. The next layer is TIPS in an IRA account. TIPS are very safe and very simple and are going to be a good hedge against inflation. And if you have calculated and are confident that you have all your income needs in retirement covered with those safe investments, then take risks.

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Won't there be a price (approx. 20% in income taxes) for pulling out of your 401K or 403B? And an additional 10% early withdrawal for those under age 59?

Is it worthwhile to move your money with these kinds of penalties??

kaybtt of CA 12:22PM July 06, 2010

...well, what a bunch of losers the Rest of us are...I knew I should have bought stock in Gold 90 yrs ago...

Sharon of NV 6:08PM October 05, 2009

I am a teacher who will be retiring in one year and four months. (BUT WHO IS COUNTING?..HA! HA!) Retiring in a comfortable fashion (I know comfortable is different for everyone)is not difficult, it takes discipline - something many people do not have. Before I tell you how I expect to be comfortable please let me tell you, I was poor as a child(parents divorced, welfare, etc. - you know) went to a state school and started work. With not a dollar, I became a substitute teacher, and worked at various part-time jobs for four years and then started a full time teaching job. During this time I married, had two children, had used cars, and paid myself first. No matter what we made, I saved maybe 5% in the beginning and then & then 7%, then 10%. Some of this money went to a 403B fully funded by me. I also bought a Roth for my husband and myself even though most people would say max out the 403B for the tax break before you do the Roths. I'm glad I didn't listen. I also bought IBONDS- many are paying me 3% to

8& to this day - NICE! I also bought into a program called Retirement Plus and had 11% taken out for retirement instead of the 7% most teachers and people in Social Security pay. Over the years, I brought coffee from the house and my lunch form home. I didn't have ( can afford them now)the expensive pocketbooks, new car, nails done, facials, gym membership for example, that the STUDENTS and others had. As a result of this discipline, I now can retire in a comfortable fashion and I believe I am healthy (to be honest - except for some stress - oh well). My children are in college and doing fine. If you are reading this and you are in your 20's,30's or 40's, I really believe if you are lucky to have decent health and you show some discipline, anyone in our country can look forward to a very nice retirement. I personally like 1/3 in a house, 1/3 in the market and 1/3 in IBONDS and cash. It workes for me!!!!

joyce of MA 4:00PM July 27, 2009

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